Day 52: Vanessa’s Perfect Storm

The often scheming Vanessa seems to be in the cross-hairs for eviction this week.
The often scheming Vanessa seems to be in the cross-hairs for eviction this week.

Steve and Shelli were the nominations made by Becky last night, but these alone do not tell the whole story. Vanessa is the target to go home this week, but in order for the plan to work, she must not win the Power of Veto competition.

She has a 3 in 8 chance (excluding Houseguest’s Choice chips) of being selected this week to play in the comp, and assuming the odds of winning are equal for everybody, she has a 1 in 6 chance of winning the competition. The odds are 1 in 16 that she can pull it off, so going for the backdoor on Vanessa is the smartest play with a 93.75% chance of success.

Fairly soon, the house will be united against the Vegas poker pro. John, of all people, has pulled Shelli away from her last night. Shelli does has some pull with the twins, who have pull with Austin. If Vanessa flips out this weekend or Monday, it only will drive nails into her own coffin, and anyone who doesn’t go along with the plan might in turn get evicted an hour after Vanessa does in the double eviction round, if all goes according to plan.

But, as I often say, there are still games to be played, and if Vanessa wins today, they all have to scramble for Plan B. We’ll just have to see if it all works.

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