It still looks like Clay is favored to go home, but only by a little bit.
The estimates I have seen have Clay going out by a 5-4 or 6-3 margin, but that is based on what the HGs are telling each other. They could be engaging in some trickeration and throwing hinky votes with all of this so that the result isn’t fully known to them. Vanessa, for one, is leading the stealth campaign for Clay’s eviction,with Clay seemingly having no idea that this is taking place.
This eviction is probably the turning point as to who wins the season. If Clay stays, Shelli won’t be there to reign him in if he gets hot-headed as he has during this past week, and would likely get picked off sooner rather than later. If Shelli stays, one of two things happen: she gets picked off right away in a Meg or Jackie HOH run, or she keeps her game in check and probably goes on a long run to around the final 3 or 4 if one of her allies gets power.
I’d also look at either Becky or Vanessa getting picked off next week in the first half of a double eviction on August 13th (that’s my thinking at least, since they had a double at F11 last year to go to F9). They each more or less play the same game, and I think they have each figured that out about each other. If neither one gets HOH, look for lobbying efforts by both women.
This should be a fun night. Enjoy it.