The House Always Wins

Strange things are beginning to happen in BB15 land.  Friday night, rivals Aaryn Gries and Elissa Slater hugged it out.
Strange things are beginning to happen in BB15 land. On Friday night, rivals Aaryn Gries and Elissa Slater hugged it out.

So since I last blogged, Spencer Clawson and Howard Overby become the nominees of the fifth HOH cycle as selected by current and former queen of the house, Aaryn Gries. Yesterday, Amanda Zuckerman joined the block being secretly selected by the audience. Then Spencer won veto privileges by winning the weekly Power of Veto competition, which he will likely use to take himself away from the risk of eviction.

With a day of negotiations and strategy sessions to come as of this writing, the thinking presently is that Candice Stewart will join showmance boyfriend Howard on the block and at the risk of being evicted.

With Spencer winning the fifth veto of the season, a couple of streaks have continued on that have continued to defy the odds.

Clawson was the fourth straight nominee heading into the POV comp to win that week’s contest. This year, with three nominees on the block each week, that has a 50/50 chance of happening each week.  Happening four straight weeks has only a 1 in 16 chance of happening, or 6.25%. In other words, it has a 93.75% chance of NOT happening. If it happens again next week, the odds of a nominee winning five straight times is 3.125%.

Spencer’s win also means that the Head Or Household or the three nominees have won each of the five contests, which has a 4 in 6 chance of happening in a single week. That happening five straight weeks has a 32 in 243 chance of happening, or a 13.17% chance. Should that happen again next week, the odds go down to 8.78%.

So what we are seeing isn’t impossible, but it is statistically improbable.  And just like in Las Vegas, sooner or later, the odds will likely correct the improbable. That is, unless someone or some force is stacking the deck.

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